Probability · Class 12 · CBSE · Science Mathematics

A product is manufactured by machines M1, M2 and M3 in proportions 30%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Their respective defect rates are 2%, 3% and 5%. I…

Practice question from Probability (Class 12 · CBSE · Science Mathematics), with the correct answer and a step-by-step solution.

hard · MCQ · Q-0C16EB

A product is manufactured by machines M1, M2 and M3 in proportions 30%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Their respective defect rates are 2%, 3% and 5%. If a randomly selected product is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was manufactured by M3?

  1. A.25/64Correct answer
  2. B.5/16
  3. C.25/32
  4. D.5/8

Solution

Using Bayes' theorem, P(M3∣D)=0.25×0.050.30×0.02+0.45×0.03+0.25×0.05=0.01250.032=2564P(M_3\mid D)=\frac{0.25\times0.05}{0.30\times0.02+0.45\times0.03+0.25\times0.05}=\frac{0.0125}{0.032}=\frac{25}{64}.

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